This fortnight
In one line: Grid output slid below 2,700MW as officials blamed gas, water and maintenance, and NNPC said its pipes were not the problem.
- Generation falls to 2,692MW. The ministry says it is not a "systemic failure of the national grid".
- Gas-to-power: NNPC rejects the blame, and a new gas network code is launched.
- TCN says load shedding, not its lines, broke Ikeja Electric's Band A promise.
- Zamfara: 18.8MWp of REA mini-grids flagged off, and 2.2MW of state-built plants switched on.
- The states: dollar licence fees, an Akwa Ibom timetable and a Lagos complaints panel.
- GenCo results and the debt roadmap: Geregu's profit falls 80%.
1. Generation falls to 2,692MW. The ministry says it is not a "systemic failure of the national grid".
Supply fell across Abuja, Lagos, Ogun, Kwara and Oyo in the first week of November. Generation peaked at 3,996MW on Wednesday 4 November and was 3,659MW at 3pm on Thursday 5 November, Vanguard reported. In a statement that day, the Ministry of Power blamed gas constraints at thermal plants, maintenance and low hydro inflows. ThisDay reported that the problems were not the result of any "major or systemic failure of the national grid" (ThisDay). That is the ministry's framing.
The same day, NISO said limited gas and lower reservoir inflows had cut the energy allocated to DisCos, causing "increased load shedding" (Nairametrics, New Telegraph).
By 10am on 7 November, generation was 2,692MW, with 14 plants at zero output in NISO data, including Sapele, Olorunsogo and Trans-Afam (The Sun).
In an update on 6–7 November, Minister of Power Joseph Tegbe cited planned maintenance at Egbin, gas constraints and sabotage of transmission lines into Lagos. He said the first units would return within 48 to 72 hours (Nairametrics, Gazette).
Why it matters: About 1,300MW left the grid between the 4 November peak and the 7 November morning reading, and no grid collapse was reported. A shortfall of fuel and water is slower and quieter than a collapse, and it lasts longer. The milestone that matters: the first units back online, which the minister said would return within 48 to 72 hours. Issue 3 will check.
2. Gas-to-power: NNPC rejects the blame, and a new gas network code is launched.
NNPC answered NISO within two days. Its chief corporate communications officer, Andy Odeh, said the transport network run by NNPC Gas Infrastructure Company had no recorded constraints that could explain the drop, and that gas production was up about 10% so far in 2026 (Premium Times, Nairametrics). NNPC said network availability should be judged separately from production, commercial supply and deliveries. It called for a joint data review by gas suppliers, transporters, GenCos and NISO. Both are claims; neither side has published plant-by-plant gas data.
On 26 October the downstream regulator NMDPRA launched Revision II of the Nigerian Gas Transportation Network Code, the rulebook for injecting, measuring and nominating gas on the pipelines (ThisDay). It adds rules for shippers, buyers and regional pipelines such as the West African Gas Pipeline. NMDPRA said imbalance on the western network was down about 30% since Revision I. No start date was given.
At ADIPEC on 3 November, NNPC said the Ajaokuta–Kaduna–Kano (AKK) pipeline is expected to deliver gas to Abuja before the end of the year, for uses including power generation (NNPC, Tribune). It is a target. In Issue 1, officials put AKK at about 95% complete and NMDPRA at "more than 80 per cent".
Why it matters: GenCos say they owe gas suppliers over ₦1trn (WithinNigeria). When gas is unpaid, "supply" and "constraint" mean different things to each side. A shared data review is the only way to know which one is short. The milestone that matters: plant-by-plant gas delivery data, published by either side. Neither has committed to it.
3. TCN says load shedding, not its lines, broke Ikeja Electric's Band A promise.
On 5 November, Ikeja Electric (IKEDC) apologised to Band A customers for missing their 20-hour minimum supply on 3 and 4 November (Techeconomy). On 6 November, TCN rejected IKEDC's "grid instability" explanation (TCN). It said root-cause findings belong to NISO under Section 67 of the Electricity Act 2023. Its own records for 1–2 November show:
- 68% of interruptions were frequency-control load shedding due to low generation
- 26% were IKEDC's own: not keeping to its load allocation, or faults on its network
- 6% were TCN maintenance, switching or line limits
Of 46 interruptions on the feeders IKEDC named, TCN put 29 down to load shedding, 14 to IKEDC and 3 to planned work on the Ogba–Alimosho line. It said none was a TCN equipment fault.
Separately, Customs released 98 of more than 300 containers of transmission equipment stuck at Lagos ports, after a presidential directive (ThisDay). The transformers, cables and switchgear will be tested before use.
Why it matters: Band A customers pay the highest tariff for a guaranteed number of hours. If most outages on IKEDC's feeders start with a generation shortfall, the DisCo cannot keep the promise alone. TCN's breakdown is one party's record, but it is the first published one. The milestone that matters: NISO's own root-cause finding, which TCN says is NISO's call.
4. Zamfara: 18.8MWp of REA mini-grids flagged off, and 2.2MW of state-built plants switched on.
On Wednesday 4 November, the Rural Electrification Agency (REA) [disclosure] flagged off 37 solar mini-grids across seven local government areas: 2 interconnected and 35 isolated (Energy Times, Vanguard).
- Planned capacity: about 18.8MWp
- Planned connections: 125,106
- Present: Governor Dauda Lawal, Minister of Power Joseph Tegbe and REA managing director Abba Aliyu
No developers, costs or completion dates were published. The reports cite the World Bank-funded DARES programme as context but do not say these sites are DARES-funded.
At the same event, two mini-grids built by the Zamfara State Government were commissioned: 1MW at Yariman Bakura Specialist Hospital and 1.2MW at Government House, with more than 3MW of battery storage (Energy Times). The Government House plant began operating on 3 November (Megastar).
Why it matters: At about 3,400 connections per site, these are large village grids. 125,106 is a plan, not a count. The milestone that matters: the first of the 37 sites commissioned, with its developer named.
5. The states: dollar licence fees, an Akwa Ibom timetable and a Lagos complaints panel.
Mini-grid developers say state regulators are pricing them out. A position paper by the Africa Minigrid Developers Association (AMDA) [disclosure] and the Renewable Energy Association of Nigeria (REAN) [disclosure], reported on 2 November, compares state fees (The Sun). For a 1–10MW licence:
- Kogi: ₦200,000 processing plus a $7,500 licence fee, about ₦10.55m at the paper's illustrative rate
- Nasarawa: ₦5.5m, now charged in naira
- Niger: ₦850,000, with dollar fees for interconnected mini-grids
The paper notes that NERC [disclosure] charges no registration or annual fee for mini-grids.
Akwa Ibom, the 17th state with a NERC transfer order (issued 18 August), set out its timetable on about 30 October (THEWILL). The commissioner expects a PHED subsidiary to be incorporated before the end of 2026, and the transition completes on 17 February 2027. Full household coverage is a 2034 target.
In Lagos, the regulator LASERC [disclosure] set up independent complaints panels, with first hearings scheduled for 4–5 November. About 48% of its complaints are about billing (Nairametrics).
Why it matters: Fees are a small cost next to equipment, but dollar fees put currency risk on naira revenue. As more states take over, a developer working in five states may face five fee schedules. The milestone that matters: whether Kogi and Niger move their dollar fees to naira, as Nasarawa has done.
6. GenCo results and the debt roadmap: Geregu's profit falls 80%.
Geregu Power's pre-tax profit for the nine months to September fell 79.85% to ₦7.55bn, and revenue fell about 80.7% to ₦25.35bn, according to its unaudited results (Nairametrics, BusinessDay). BusinessDay links the fall to three transformers that failed. One was reconnected in August and two are due back in November and December. 18,704MWh of energy lost in August and September is under reconciliation with NISO.
Transcorp Group reported nine-month pre-tax profit of ₦111.4bn, down from ₦124.5bn, with cash of ₦45.9bn, up from ₦21.9bn at December 2025 (NGX filing).
At Nigeria Energy 2026 in Lagos (27–29 October), Tegbe restated that ₦1.23trn of legacy debt had been paid, against an estimated ₦3.3trn (Majorwaves). He also set out three phases: stabilise to February 2027, scale from March 2027 to 2028, transform from 2028 (Energy Focus Report). These are targets.
Why it matters: ₦3.3trn is the minister's estimate. Vanguard put the Federal Government's debt to GenCos at about ₦6trn at the end of 2025 (Vanguard). Geregu shows that bond money cannot help a plant whose equipment is down. The milestone that matters: Geregu's two remaining transformers, due back in November and December.
Grid Ledger
The same rows appear every issue, so the changes show.
| Indicator | Value | Type | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lowest grid generation reported | 2,692MW (14 plants at zero) | Reported (press; plant data from NISO) | 7 Nov, 10am | The Sun |
| Highest grid generation reported | 3,996MW | Reported (press) | 4 Nov, peak | Vanguard |
| Major grid disturbances | None reported. NISO called the decline a gas and water shortfall | Official statement via press | 26 Oct–8 Nov | Nairametrics |
| States with NERC transfer orders | 17 (Akwa Ibom confirmed as 17th); 15 fully transferred per NERC, May 2026 | State statement via press; NERC | 30–31 Oct | THEWILL; NERC |
| Customers metered | Not reported this fortnight (last: 63.10% of 12.75m, Aug 2026) | NERC factsheet, as reported | Aug 2026 | ThisDay |
| ATC&C losses vs target | Not reported this fortnight (last: 36.23% vs 16.92%, Q2 2026) | Official report | Q2 2026 | NERC Q2 report, p.5 |
| Mini-grid commissionings reported | 2.2MW; connections not reported | Sum of press reports; not a national total | 26 Oct–8 Nov | Item 4 |
| Mini-grid capacity started or flagged off | About 18.8MWp; 125,106 planned connections | Reported; planned | 26 Oct–8 Nov | Item 4 |
| GenCo legacy debt paid through bonds | About ₦1.23trn of an estimated ₦3.3trn; no new payment | Minister's claim, restated | 27 Oct | Majorwaves |
| Tariff orders | No new NERC tariff order found | Brief's search | 26 Oct–8 Nov | NERC site, press |
West Africa in brief
- ECOWAS: battery rules adopted (follow-up to Issue 1). The energy ministers' meeting in Accra on 22 October, just before this window, adopted a regional directive on battery storage, covering licensing, market participation and recycling. It sets no numeric targets (ECREEE). Whether the levy amendment passed is unconfirmed (Energy News Network).
- WAPP North Core passes 75%. The 330kV line linking Nigeria, Niger, Benin, Togo and Burkina Faso is just over 75% complete; Nigeria's section is still under construction (TCN).
- Benin: €30m for its first solar IPPs. IFC and Proparco are lending €30m toward €45m for four AXIAN solar plants totalling 62MWp, due online in Q1 2028 (IFC).
- Côte d'Ivoire: $322.5m US compact advances. A parliamentary committee approved ratifying a five-year regional energy compact: a $300m MCC grant plus $22.5m from the state. Ratification is due before 12 November (KOACI).
- Guinea: utility pays about 3% of hydro bills. A parliamentary budget report says EDG paid $4.5m of $139.4m billed by Kaléta's operator and $6m of $240.9m by Souapiti's, in 2026 to September (Le Révélateur 224).
Coming up
- 10–12 Nov: Lagos Energy Summit, announced by Lagos Commissioner for Energy and Mineral Resources Biodun Ogunleye (PM News).
- About 11 Nov: the three-week window given to BEDC management at the 21 October conciliation with NUEE, convened by the Federal Ministry of Labour, ends (ThisDay).
- 12 Nov: deadline for Côte d'Ivoire to ratify the MCC energy compact.
- 25–26 Nov: REFA 2026, Lagos, with an REA keynote (New Telegraph).
- 13–20 Dec: NESI Week, Velodrome, National Stadium, Abuja, moved from 15 November (official site; ThisDay reports the move and gives 13–19 Dec).
- Pending: NERC's Q3 2026 report.
- Mon 23 Nov: Grid Brief Issue 3, covering 9–22 Nov.
About the Grid Brief
Disclosure. The Grid Brief is published by Gen318, which builds performance records for energy assets in Nigeria. Gen318 has pitched the REA, AMDA, REAN and LASERC, and has corresponded with NERC on net billing; all five are tagged [disclosure]. Gen318 has no contract with any entity in this issue. An entity is tagged [disclosure] when Gen318 has replied to, met or sent a proposal to it in the last 90 days, or has a pilot, contract or partnership with it.
Method. Every fact links to its source. Figures are labelled as reported, claimed or targeted where they are not measurements. Where sources conflict, the Brief gives both. Drafting is AI-assisted, and every source is opened and checked by the editor before publication.
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Editor: Abraham Onoja · Abuja · Issue 2 · Covering 26 October–8 November 2026